Argument 109
In the argument, the author claims that the company should resume the production
 of wool fabric. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that customers
 should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats, and 
the company profits will increase. In addition, the arguer reasons that since th
e company has not offered a alpaca overcoat for five years and its major competi
tor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, the coat should sell very well. This arg
ument suffers from many critical fallacies.
First, the argument is based “on all things are equal”, the arguer simply assu
mes that they should resume the production because they have reliable supplies o
f high-quality wool fabric. But it doesn’t follow that as soon as they have the
 supplies, they should resume, for the fact which caused them stopped producing 
five years ago can’t be a sound reason for the resume. The arguer just assume t
he background remain the same as 5 years ago without any statement.
Secondly, the arguer commits a fallacy of ether-or-choice. Even under the condit
ion that the company’s competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, it can’t
 come that the company will occupy the market, for there are other companies joi
ning in the competition. Further more, the reasons why the competitor quit the m
arket is unknown, one of them maybe the market is atrophying and no longer bring
s profits. If so, it’s not a good choice to resume the production.
Thirdly, the arguer hints that customers should be willing to pay significantly 
higher prices for alpaca overcoats, and the company profits will increase. But o
bviously it doesn’t reasoning. If the purchasing power continues going down dur
ing the recent years, it is foolish to raise the price. If the wool fabric is no
 longer welcomed by the custemers, high price can’t be accepted, either. And, i
f the cost of wool fabric rises, the total cost can’t be beaten down, the incre
ase of profit seems impossible.
In my opinion, the arguer fails to fabric the argument austerely. Three defects 
are fatal. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about
 the market distribution and the need for the market.

30mins 381 words, far from 500words,5555

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春色三分，二分尘土，一分流水，细看来，不是扬花，点点是，离人泪…… 

十年生死两茫茫，不思量，自难忘……

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Never,never give up.