Argument 22
FOR THE PAST FIVE YEARS, CONSUMERS IN CALIFORNIA HAVE BEEN WILLING TO PAY TWICE
AS MUCH FOR OYSTERS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AS FOR GULF COAST OYSTE
RS. THIS TREND BEGAN SHORTLY AFTER HARMFUL BACTERIA WERE FOUND IN A FEW RAW GULF
COAST OYSTERS. BUT SCIENTISTS HAVE NOW DEVISED A PROCESS FOR KILLING THE BACTER
IA. ONCE CONSUMERS ARE MADE AWARE OF THE INCREASED SAFETY OF GULF COAST OYSTERS,
THEY ARE LIKELY TO BE WILLING TO PAY AS MUCH FOR GULF COAST AS FOR NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC COAST OYSTERS, AND GREATER PROFITS FOR GULF COAST OYSTER PRODUCERS WIL
L FOLLOW.
In the argument, the author reaches the conclusion that once cunsumers are made
aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willi
ng to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeasten Atlantic Coast oysters. The
base for this conclusion is that scientists found a process for killing the bact
eria in oysters. Also the arguer cites harmful bacteria were found in a few raw
Gulf Coast oysters as example. This argument may seen to be somewhat convincin a
t first glance, but a close examination tell us the reason is inplicity false re
lagion and gratuitious false.
Firstly, the author commits a fallacy of casual oversimplification. The line of
the reasoning is that because consumers' trend began shortly after harmful bacte
ria were found in a gew raw Gulf Coast oysters. But this is illogical reasoning
unless other possible casusal explanations have been considered and ruled out. F
or example, maybe the method of breed aquatics at Atlantic Coast oysters had a b
reakthrough during time of the find of scientists.
Next, the author falsely depends on gratuitious assumption that once cunsumers a
re made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to
be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeasten Atlantic Coast oyste
rs. However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. P
erhaps it is true that more consumers will persue the oysters from Gulf Coast, b
ut it doesn't mean that they'll pay the same price as oysters from northeasten A
tlantic Coast oysters. If Gulf Coast can't offer a reasonable price, they'll sel
l less.
Finally, the author falsely concluded that greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster
roducers will follow. As it is known to all, a formula can caculate profits: pr
ofit equals to units price multiplies volume and subtract the cost. The author
seems only to resolve one problem: price. But if rise the price blindly, the vol
ume will be decreased, thus, profits will be down. After all, the volume is one
thing, and the units price is another.
All in all, to rise the profit have many ways, as the old saying goes, "All road
s lead to Roma." Only use one way is far from effective, only a complex measure
would take effect.
掐时间~~~半个小时写完`~~难啊`~~~555
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春色三分，二分尘土，一分流水，细看来，不是扬花，点点是，离人泪……
十年生死两茫茫，不思量，自难忘……
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※作者已于 2003-07-18 21:46:18 修改本文※
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Argument 22 (GRE)(自己写的)
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